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Updated projection: Student List wins with 52.9% vote, 141 seats in new parliament

The latest version of the Ipsos/CeSID poll, updated with the partial results, gives the Student List 141 out of 250 seats in the new parliament with 52.9% of the vote share.

That’s well clear of the 126 required for majority.

Vučić’s list will have 103 seats in the new parliament, with 38.8% of the vote share.

Four minority parties will take the remaining six seats in the new assembly.

Key events

• 16m ago

  Student opposition movement ends strongman Vučić's rule in Serbia - summary

• 16m ago

  Updated projection: Student List wins with 52.9% vote, 141 seats in new parliament

• 1h ago

  'The door to the EU is open, and we are ready to move forward together,' EU enlargement commissioner says

• 1h ago

  'We stand ready to support reforms ... and work to advance Serbia's future in the EU,' von der Leyen and Costa say

• 1h ago

  Vučić’s gambit backfires as Serbia will need to host second elections to choose his presidential successor

• 2h ago

  Celebrations on the streets of Belgrade as Vučić concedes election – in pictures

• 2h ago

  Despite some similarities, Student List's win in Serbia is slightly different than Tisza's in Hungary – snap analysis

• 2h ago

  Hungary's Magyar congratulates the Student List on election win

• 2h ago

  'We will remember this moment for the rest of our lives'

• 2h ago

  'This feels like New Year’s Eve; like three New Year’s Eves all at once'

• 2h ago

  'After 14 years, we finally feel freedom again'

• 2h ago

  'A victory of courage over fear, of hope over indifference,' Student List's Saičić says, but adds 'tomorrow, the work begins'

• 3h ago

  CRTA projection: Student List wins by landslide

• 3h ago

  ‘I feel like it’s some kind of dream'

• 3h ago

  'The students are winning. No: the students have won it!'

• 3h ago

  'It is clear we lost these elections,' Vučić concedes

• 3h ago

  Belgrade takes to streets to celebrate as Vučić concedes election

• 3h ago

  Ipsos/CeSID projection: Student List wins by landslide, ending Vučić’s rule

• 3h ago

  Vučić concedes election, says Student List will be the largest party

• 3h ago

  Vučić expected to address party faithful shortly

• 4h ago

  Election monitors raise concerns about road blockage near election commission, security worries of EU observers

• 4h ago

  'Scenes from Serbia are deeply concerning,' former UK foreign affairs committee chief says

• 4h ago

  Diaspora voters battle long queues as they are determined to cast their ballots

• 5h ago

  Strengthened police presence near key institutions as polls close in Serbia

• 5h ago

  What is Serbia's electoral system?

• 5h ago

  Polls close across Serbia

• 5h ago

  CeSID/Ipsos project turnout of 67.6% at 7pm

• 5h ago

  Vučić voters still back him against students

• 5h ago

  Opposition voters see election as referendum on Vučić and chance to change Serbia

• 6h ago

  Serbian election sees highest turnout since breakup of Yugoslavia, partial data show

• 6h ago

  Serbia votes – what do you need to know?

• 6h ago

  EU 'deeply concerned about reported violent incidents' in Serbia, ambassador says

• 6h ago

  Up to three-hour wait at the Serbian embassy in London as Serbs in UK turn out to vote

• 6h ago

  Record-high number of diaspora voters take part in Serbian election

• 6h ago

  Radev's former vice-president Iotova leads in Bulgarian presidential election ahead of runoff, exit polls show

• 6h ago

  Unreliable pre-election polls and projections from samples – what are we going to know and when?

• 6h ago

  Turnout projected to be above 60% with three hours to go

• 7h ago

  Motivated opposition voters turn out in Belgrade in closely-monitored high-stake election

• 7h ago

  Record-high turnout so far by 4pm

• 7h ago

  Look out for allegations of irregularities, fraud, polling station incidents

• 7h ago

  What does this election mean for Ukraine?

• 7h ago

  What does this election mean for Serbia's relations with the EU?

• 7h ago

  How did the student movement come about?

• 7h ago

  Who are the main actors tonight?

• 8h ago

  Who is Aleksandar Vučić?

• 8h ago

  Blog opening: Serbia's strongman Vučić faces sternest test of his 12-year rule

Student opposition movement ends strongman Vučić's rule in Serbia - summary

Jakub Krupa

And, on that note, we will be closing the blog for tonight as the clocks strike half past midnight in Belgrade.

• The opposition grassroots movement Student List has won a landslide in the Serbian parliamentary election, ousting the country’s authoritarian leader Aleksandar Vučić.

• The leaderless student movement, which started less than a year ago in protest against alleged widespread state corruption (17:42), is projected to have a clear majority in the new parliament (21:43, 22:22, 00:37).

• The result appears to have been driven primarily by unprecedented mobilisation across the country, with the final turnout projected to be just below 70%, the highest since the first election in 1990.

• “It is clear ⁠that we have lost these ​elections,” Vučić conceded (21:35), prompting wild scenes of celebrations in Belgrade and other Serbian cities (21:45, 22:01, 22:08, 22:19, 22:38, 22:42, 22:45, 23:21).

• Vučić rose to prominence in the 1990s as a radical nationalist, who supported the policies of Serbian expansion and ethnic cleansing led by Slobodan Milošević, and has been the country’s leading government figure for more than a decade (17:14).

• A prominent Student List candidate Radomir Saičić hailed the result as “a victory of courage over fear, of hope over indifference,” as he stressed “the great responsibility” facing the movement. “Tonight, we celebrate … Tomorrow, the work begins,” he said (22:34).

• The result was warmly welcomed by EU leaders, Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa, as they expressed their hopes for a new start in the bloc’s relationship with Serbia (23:39, 23:54), despite the movement’s ambiguous positioning on the EU (16:48).

• Hungary’s prime minister Péter Magyar was the first national EU leader to offer congratulations, drawing parallels with his victory over Viktor Orbán earlier this year (22:48, 23:09).

• In a likely further embarrassment to the ousted strongman Vučić, Serbia will have to hold presidential elections in the coming months to choose his successor as the head of state (23:34).

• Thousands of diaspora voters joined in lengthy queues to cast their votes around the world (20:41), with up to three hours wait in London (18:58, 19:09).

For now, that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa, with contributions from Ana Milosavljevic on the ground in Belgrade. Thank you for joining us tonight.

Laku noć, Srbija!

Updated projection: Student List wins with 52.9% vote, 141 seats in new parliament

The latest version of the Ipsos/CeSID poll, updated with the partial results, gives the Student List 141 out of 250 seats in the new parliament with 52.9% of the vote share.

That’s well clear of the 126 required for majority.

Vučić’s list will have 103 seats in the new parliament, with 38.8% of the vote share.

Four minority parties will take the remaining six seats in the new assembly.

'The door to the EU is open, and we are ready to move forward together,' EU enlargement commissioner says

EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos is clearly hoping for more engagement from the new government in Belgrade.

In her congratulatory message on X, she said:

“Dear Serbia, you have made your voice heard! After nearly two years of protests for democracy, the rule of law and the fight against corruption, Serbians turned out in historic numbers. Congratulations to the Student List on your victory!

These are the very values at the heart of our European Union. A new chapter can begin for Serbia. The door to the EU is open, and we are ready to move forward together.”

Montenegrin prime minister Milojko Spajić also offered his congratulations.

In a post on X, he said:

“Today in Serbia is a vivid reminder that the will of the citizens and their right to freely decide on their future are the foundation of every democratic change.

I congratulate the representatives of the Student List and firmly believe that a new chapter lies ahead for Montenegro and Serbia, based on respect and open dialogue, without unnecessary escalation of tensions.

The citizens of both countries deserve relations that will be measured by concrete results of cooperation, and not by the depth of diplomatic misunderstandings.”

Montenegrin president Jakov Milatovic also joined in:

“I congratulate the Student List on their electoral victory, and the citizens of the Republic of Serbia on their clearly expressed democratic will. I am convinced that this electoral result will open a new chapter in the relations between Montenegro and the Republic of Serbia, based on friendship, sincere dialogue, and commitment to a shared European future.”

The change of government in Serbia could indeed significantly shift the dynamic in the western Balkans, although again we should not necessarily expect an immediate move against Russia (17:54).

Council of Europe’s secretary general Alain Berset has also offered his congratulations.

He says:

“Congratulations to the Student List of Serbia on your electoral result.

Serbian citizens have made their democratic choice. We welcome former President Vučić’s acceptance of the result and commitment to a peaceful democratic transition.

Council of Europe stands ready to work with Serbia’s democratically elected leadership to strengthen human rights, democracy and the rule of law.

Your perseverance, energy and commitment to European principles and Serbia’s future have brought you this far. You can count on our support.”

'We stand ready to support reforms ... and work to advance Serbia's future in the EU,' von der Leyen and Costa say

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president António Costa have congratulated the Student List on their victory in tonight’s election in Serbia.

In two identical posts on X, they said:

“Today, the people of Serbia turned out in record numbers to shape their country’s future. Congratulations to the Student List on its victory in the parliamentary elections.

We stand ready to support reforms on the rule of law, media freedom, the fight against corruption and strong democratic institutions, and to work together to advance Serbia’s future in the European Union.”

As explained earlier, it may not be quite that straightforward when it comes to the EU… (16:48).

Vučić’s gambit backfires as Serbia will need to host second elections to choose his presidential successor

Jakub Krupa

By the way, Vučić’s decision to step down as president to contest this election now puts him in a very awkward position.

Because, erm, the Serbian people will now have to choose his successor as the head of state, and looking at the results tonight, he may not like the outcome of that process either.

After his resignation, a close Vučić ally – the outgoing speaker of the parliament and former prime minister Ana Brnabić – has temporarily stepped into the role as acting president.

But once the new parliament forms, the new speaker will have to decide the next steps for recruiting the full-time replacement.

The process is complicated and CRTA has a good explanation on all possible dates here, but essentially the vote needs to take place before the end of the year.

Whoopsie.

Celebrations on the streets of Belgrade as Vučić concedes election – in pictures

Despite some similarities, Student List's win in Serbia is slightly different than Tisza's in Hungary – snap analysis

Jakub Krupa

When thinking about today’s opposition win in Serbia, there is an understandable temptation to compare it to Hungary and the fall of Viktor Orbán in April – and Magyar clearly plays on that in his reaction, too (22:48).

And there are some undeniable similarities in how the two countries visibly grew tired of their increasingly authoritarian leaders.

The opposition forces in both countries – Tisza in Hungary and the Student List in Serbia – have some things in common, for example their sort of catch-all character as they formulate their demands in the broadest possible terms to attract all sorts of voters, while relentlessly focusing on corruption and demands of accountability for political leaders.

On a technical level, they both focused on a door to door campaign, making a point of covering thousands of kilometres across the country, and reaching out to voters directly, instead of being a sort of talking shop with ideas. They also both adopted elements of national folks and symbolism for their campaigns.

But there are also very substantial differences.

The Serbian Student List does not have a single strong leader figure in sharp contrast to Péter Magyar’s strong position in Tisza. It is based on a grassroots group of people with little prior experience of frontline politics, and not on a former insider who switched sides, with all sorts of upsides and downsides that come with that. For one, we do not even know who could be their PM.

The Student List’s path to a parliamentary majority was also technically more complicated or, put it simply, required a larger win. That is largely down to the mechanics of the Serbian electoral system, which – unlike the setup Viktor Orbán had tailored in Hungary with the intention of helping his own party, not the opposition – does not offer the same disproportionate winner’s bonus.

Finally, the underlying issues demanding immediate attention are possibly much bigger and more complicated to resolve in Serbia than in Hungary, particularly without the option of getting some EU funds flowing quickly after the vote to buy you some good will and time. Hungary’s Tisza is much more openly pro-European than the Student List.

But Magyar clearly and, at least to an extent, rightly sees the two movements and their victories as linked: earlier this morning, he even posted a slightly cheesy post reminiscing the times he and his parents spent at an unnamed Serbian restaurant in Budapest, “which has since closed down.”

“Fortunately, you can still find great ćevapi in plenty of places, whether Sarajevo-style or Serbian-style,” he added, posting a picture of himself with the said ćevapi.

(There are some sensational Serbian places in London, too. Just saying.)

Hungary's Magyar congratulates the Student List on election win

Hungary’s prime minister Péter Magyar – who came to power ousting Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power – is among the very first European leaders to offer his congratulations to the Student List.

In a post on X, he says:

“I have just spoken by phone with the leaders of the Students’ List @studentblokade, who won the elections in Serbia, to congratulate them on their victory. I assured them of Hungary’s support.

I was delighted to hear how much strength our victory in April had given them during this difficult struggle.”

Earlier tonight, he cheekily said:

“In Serbia, @avucic has conceded defeat. The Students’ List has won an absolute majority in the elections. Celebrations have begun in the streets across Serbia. Sound familiar?”

'We will remember this moment for the rest of our lives'

Ana Milosavljevic
in Belgrade

“I think this is a moment we will remember for the rest of our lives,” Sara, 24, says as she smiles with her friends.

“It’s simply the realisation of our dream. And it’s very strange that on the very streets where the police beat us, on the streets where we retreated countless times in the face of the gendarmerie, we are now standing here as the victors.”

She continues:

“I think this is a victory for everything we stood for, for all the values we promoted through the student movement. And I’m very glad that we’ve proven that Serbia only wins when the students win.”

'This feels like New Year’s Eve; like three New Year’s Eves all at once'

Ana Milosavljevic
in Belgrade

Ivana, 43, is equally ecstatic.

“This feels like New Year’s Eve to me, like three New Year’s Eves all at once, really. We can finally breathe again.”

She says she is hoping for swift accountability for key members of the ousted regime.

'After 14 years, we finally feel freedom again'

Ana Milosavljevic
in Belgrade

"After 14 years, we finally feel freedom again,” Nemanja, 29, says when we start chatting amid celebrations in Belgrade.

“We feel that justice will come and that this will become a beautiful and good country, where people can get ahead through their own knowledge and abilities.”

'A victory of courage over fear, of hope over indifference,' Student List's Saičić says, but adds 'tomorrow, the work begins'

Speaking at the Student List’s election night party, chemist Radomir Saičić had one of the strongest speeches as he thanked all who cast their votes in today’s election.

But he said “tonight is about more than just the results: it is about the people who kept believing when things where at their hardest, who refused to give up, to believe that nothing could ever change.”

He calls it “a victory of courage over fear; of hope over indifference; and of conviction that Serbia can, and must, be different.”

He says the victory “is not a personal trophy; does not belong to any of us,” and brings about “great responsibility” for all those in the new parliamentary majority.

“Tonight we have shown that change is not only possible, but that there is a will for it. Now we must prove ourselves worthy of the trust we have been given. …

Tonight, we celebrate in the way Serbia knows to do best: with song, dance, embraces, and tears of joy. And tomorrow? Tomorrow, the work begins.”

Ana Milosavljevic
in Belgrade

In pretty moving scenes, some people offer handshakes, high fives and even bear hugs to police officers as they stand aside from blocking the streets, despite earlier concerns about a potential mobilisation of security forces.

The crowd is now moving towards Slavija square, where they held their final pre-election on Thursday.

CRTA projection: Student List wins by landslide

Crta’s projection is very similar to that of Ipsos/CeSIR (21:43): it puts the Student List at 51.2% with 134 seats in the new parliament, well clear of the 126 required for the majority.

Vučić’s list is in the second place with 40.4% of the vote and 106 seats.

10 seats are expected to go to minority groups, including three seats each for Hungarians and Albanians.

Jakub Krupa

If you’re planning a trip to Belgrade in the coming days, I hope you like enthusiastic street dancing, red flares and brass bands.

And you can quickly pick up new chants to join in.