Shell’s refineries are expected to make record profits on each barrel of fuel produced after shortages in the global market caused pump prices around the world to climb to all-time highs.

In a trading update on Wednesday, the energy supermajor forecast profit margins of $42 a barrel in the July to September period, far above the margins of $24 a barrel in the second quarter.

The forecast margins are also significantly higher than the previous record for petroleum products of about $28 a barrel, set in the early months of the Russia-Ukraine war.

The margins reflect the steep increase in the price of refined fuels, including diesel, relative to the cost of the crude oil. A partial recovery of Gulf oil exports has allowed crude market prices to ease back to about $100 a barrel, while war damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia has caused fuel prices to continue to climb.

That gap should make larger profits possible for refineries, particularly those in the US and Europe. The Middle East crisis has already helped Shell to a profit of almost $10bn (£7.5bn) for the second quarter of 2026, more than double the figure for the same period last year and its second highest quarterly earnings on record.

The market value of Europe’s biggest oil and gas company, now the second largest company on the UK’s FTSE 100 index, climbed to a record high of £36.23 a share at the end of last month.

That share price was reached despite oil prices retreating from their 2026 peak of above $115 a barrel in spring to about $100. It was lifted by European gas prices, which doubled from the previous year over the summer, and record high diesel prices.

Global oil prices were slightly lower in the third quarter of the year. Brent crude averaged $85.60 a barrel, compared with $97.05 in the second quarter, but still well above the $68.14 recorded in the third quarter last year.

The diesel price premium over the global oil benchmark jumped above $100 a barrel for the first time, indicating record high profits from refining crude into fuels.

Shell operates some of Europe’s largest refineries alongside the French energy company TotalEnergies, which has the continent’s largest refining capacity.

TotalEnergies’ chief executive, Patrick Pouyanné, welcomed the opportunities created by the global energy crisis. He told an industry conference in London this week: “We’re doing really well by being integrated. Integration means your refineries in Europe, which you thought were liabilities, are suddenly becoming goldmines.”

Europe’s benchmark gas price index more than doubled to €70.50 (£60) in August. The price of gas reached an average of more than €48 a megawatt-hour in the second quarter before leaping to almost €64/MWh in the third quarter.

Shell’s gas production has been hard hit by the Middle East crisis, which led to severe damage to one of its key gas processing facilities in the Gulf, cutting its prewar gas production of 900,000 barrels ⁠of oil ​equivalent ‌per day (BOED) by a third.

Shell said on Wednesday that it expected gas production to climb to about 740,000 to 780,000 barrels ⁠of oil ​equivalent ‌a day ‌after its acquisition of Canada’s ARC Resources, up sharply from its previous forecast of 570,000 to 630,000 BOED for the quarter. It produced about 631,000 BOED in the second quarter.

The deal, which is expected to add about 370,000 barrels a day to Shell’s production of oil and gas, was completed in early September to add a month’s worth of production to its estimates for the quarter.