US President Donald Trump (L) meets with China's President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of their visit to Zhongnanhai Garden in Beijing on May 15, 2026.

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Soybean purchases, orders for Boeing aircraft and access to rare earths elements — three of the headline commitments underpinning the U.S.-China trade truce — are progressing at markedly different speeds ahead of the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Washington on Thursday.

Taken together, the uneven fulfillment record suggests the truce is performing its minimal function of keeping commerce moving and discouraging renewed escalation, but there is little willingness on either side to cede strategic leverage, analysts said.

"The truce is moving fastest where it costs least," Eric Xiao, head of sales for Asia at CMC Markets, told CNBC.

The superpowers' May meeting reaffirmed Beijing's commitment to increase purchases of U.S. soybeans and buy 200 Boeing aircraft, while Chinese shipments of rare earths magnets are back underway after export controls were suspended for a 12-month period beginning last November.

But delivery across the three commitments has been uneven, and difficult to verify in some cases.

Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Group, described the recent U.S.-China relationship as a phase of détente — a cooling of tensions — driven by "a balance of vulnerability."

Both sides are "acutely aware of the other's choke points," Hu said in a note.

The détente should not be mistaken for a rapprochement, according to Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

"Each side has an interest in stability right now," Cutler told CNBC's "The China Connection" in May. "This doesn't mean we're going to become best friends, but it means we're going to coexist."

Soybeans: most visible lever

Soybeans offer the clearest numerical signal of progress across the trade commitments.

China has bought almost half its 25 million ton annual commitment after it purchased roughly one million tons from U.S. producers in a single week in September, Reuters reported.

Soybean purchases are also an important tool for signaling cooperation between the two nations.

"Things pick up a little bit before the bilateral meetings between Trump and Xi ... and then fall off again," China strategist Andy Rothman told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" in July, noting that purchases tended to cluster around key meetings.

Xiao described soybean purchases as "political trophies", but cautioned against interpreting soybean fulfillment as a direct sign of Beijing's stance on broader trade ties. "China buys them because it needs them," he said.

Soybean trade tiffs are not a recent development.

China, the world's largest soybean importer, saw U.S. soybeans plummet from 40% of total imports before Trump imposed tariffs on major Chinese goods in 2018, to 23% in the first five months of 2026.

Aircraft: slower, stickier pledge

Progress on the 200-aircraft commitment is less transparent.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer this week said roughly 140 aircraft were in a "good state," with orders for another 10 being written, according to Reuters. Customers, models and delivery timelines have not been disclosed.

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg has also downplayed expectations for a single 200-aircraft announcement, saying individual Chinese airlines would place and announce orders at their own pace.

The pledge came with additional caveats, with Beijing's official account of the May agreement tying the purchases to U.S. guarantees over the supply of aircraft engines and parts.

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Rare earths: strategic leverage remains

Beijing's fulfillment of the rare earths commitment is harder to measure, because the promise concerns reliable access rather than a specified export volume.

Chinese shipments of rare earths magnets to the U.S. recovered after earlier restrictions, but fell to 512 metric tons in August — down 20% from July and 13% from a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data reported by the Financial Times.

Uncertainty around rare earths access also persists for U.S. customers.

Some Chinese suppliers have declined U.S. orders because of geopolitical and compliance concerns, while some American companies have waited more than six months for export licenses, Reuters reported.

Rare earths' strategic importance may provide the clearest signal of each nation's stance on trade ties because of the strategic cost of making concessions over the materials, experts said.

Macquarie's Hu identified rare earths as the principal Chinese choke point, balanced against U.S. leverage in advanced semiconductors used in chipmaking.

Xiao similarly called rare earths the clearest indicator of the broader relationship, due to their importance in clean energy, advanced technology and defense.

Progression on the rare earths commitment could "anchor a durable relationship in a way that soybean and aircraft orders cannot," Xiao said.

He noted that exercising that leverage is a delicate calculation. A complete cutoff of exports would encourage the U.S. and its allies to accelerate alternative supply chains while hurting Chinese producers that depend on global electric vehicle and technology markets.

China's "strongest card, in other words, is one it cannot play in full," Xiao said.

– CNBC's Evelyn Cheng and Anniek Bao contributed to this story.