The past 12 months have not been kind to Microsoft.

Once the most valuable company in the world, the Big Tech titan's share price has been sliding. Microsoft's stock dropped 19% in June, its worst month since the dot-com crash. Some of its top brands, like Microsoft 365, Copilot, and Xbox, are facing serious headwinds and questions about their future.

BI's Ashley Stewart, our resident Microsoft expert, broke down how the tech giant is trying to mount a comeback on multiple fronts.

It wasn't always this way. A few years ago, Microsoft was the top dog, getting praised for its foresight on the AI revolution. An early investor in OpenAI, Microsoft also quickly implemented AI into its search engine, Bing.

AI's volatility is bound to swing companies' fortunes quickly, but it's hit Microsoft particularly hard. Its 12-month stock performance (down roughly 25%) is the worst of the Magnificent Seven by a decent margin. (Meta is the next closest, down almost 17%.)

Microsoft will get another test on Wednesday when it reports earnings after the bell.

At the heart of Microsoft's challenge is a classic business dilemma: Does it cash in on demand today or focus more on its long-term goals?

Compute is the name of the AI game. Microsoft has the benefit of a massive cloud business in Azure that can help customers meet those needs.

But Microsoft's cloud business is a gift and a curse. There is only so much compute to go around, and Microsoft has its own AI plans it needs that infrastructure for.

That means a decision: Allocate those resources toward its clients or itself?

The former leads to the more immediate boost to the top line, but comes with a risk. Less compute for Microsoft means fewer resources to develop and run its products, which could set it further back in the AI race.

Keeping more compute for itself is a bet that Microsoft's products will ultimately take off, which is good for the long run. But disappointing growth for Azure could tank its stock immediately.

This isn't happening in a vacuum. Google Cloud continues to put up massive numbers. (Although it's also feeling the pinch of AI spend as its free cash flow went negative for the first time in decades.)

And while they're not as complete an offering as Azure, Meta and SpaceX are also getting in the compute-for-hire game.

So as Microsoft continues to debate how it wants to split up its compute, its customers have alternatives. And they might not stick around to find out what Microsoft decides.

Dan DeFrancesco

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Dan is the lead writer for BI Today, Business Insider's flagship daily newsletter. Dan often interviews executives about everything from AI's impact on capitalism to robotics to the potential SaaSpocalypse as part of his work on the newsletter.Dan was an editor and reporter at BI, covering financial technology and market structure.His previous work includes everything from inside Robinhood's failed "Checking and Savings" product that eventually led to Congress getting involved to the internal arguments over JPMorgan's failed attempt to launch a finance app for millennials.Before joining Business Insider, Dan wrote about risk management in derivatives markets for Risk.net and fintech for WatersTechnology. He initially covered local sports for The Journal News, a daily newspaper serving the lower Hudson Valley. Got a tip? Contact this editor via email at [email protected].

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