A sign encouraging participation in the U.S. Census lies on a sidewalk in Somerville, Massachusetts, U.S., August 4, 2020.

Brian Snyder | Reuters

Congressional Democrats and civil rights groups are concerned about a proposed Trump administration change to the U.S. census that would exclude noncitizens without permanent resident status, altering congressional representation and potentially how federal funding is distributed.

Opponents warn the rule, which was posted in September, could have negative effects, potentially shifting congressional power to parts of the country where fewer immigrants live and underfunding education, healthcare, food assistance and emergency management programs. The public can comment on the rule until Nov. 2, the day before Election Day.

"The greatest likelihood is that this is going to end up in litigation," said Meeta Anand, senior director of census and data equity at the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights. "I'm under no delusion that we will see everything remedied because I do know that it's been a project of the administration to exclude noncitizens from the count."

The proposed census change is the latest volley in the Trump administration's push to reduce illegal immigration. If certain categories of immigrants living in the U.S. are not counted, areas where they are concentrated could get less federal money. The rule's supporters say counting all immigrants living legally in the U.S. encourages illegal immigration.

The rule would exclude from the census millions of noncitizens without a green card, including people in the country on student visas, people with temporary protected status, refugees and asylum seekers. It would also bar the collection of demographic information on race and ethnicity from the census's short-form questionnaire. That information can be used for civil rights enforcement and to assess compliance with federal laws that bar racial discrimination.

The White House referred CNBC to the Commerce Department, which oversees the census, when asked for comment on the proposed rule. The Commerce Department and the Census Bureau did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Critics argue the proposal flies in the face of the 14th Amendment, which states, in part, that "representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State."

"This rule is yet another attack on democracy by Donald Trump," Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., said in a statement after the rule was announced last month. "An accurate census count is at the very foundation of ensuring equal representation across our country and delivering federal funds where they're needed most. The Census is enshrined in our Constitution and not up for political debate."

Census has counted noncitizens since U.S. founding

Proponents, including some congressional Republicans who have introduced legislation to end the counting of noncitizens, argue the census practice of counting all U.S. residents — which dates back to the nation's founding — encourages illegal immigration and makes some voters more powerful than others.

"Republicans have long warned that Democrats' intentional illegal invasion and sanctuary policies are rooted in a desire to boost blue states' power," Rep. Andrew Clyde, R-Ga., said in a statement in September announcing legislation that would call for reapportioning congressional seats before the 2028 election while excluding noncitizens and adding a citizenship question the 2030 census. The proposal has 42 Republican co-sponsors.

Normally, seats are reapportioned every 10 years using new census data.

"Amid high stakes and slim margins, Congress must act before the 2028 elections to ensure only American citizens decide how congressional maps are drawn and who resides in the White House," Clyde added.

Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., introduced similar legislation last year that would require the Census Bureau to include a citizenship status question on any future census, arguing noncitizens heavily skew the congressional map.

"While people continue to flee Democrat-run cities, desperate Democrats have back-filled the mass exodus with illegal immigrants so that they do not lose their seats in Congress or their electoral votes, hence artificially boosting their political power and in turn diluting the power of other Americans' votes," Hagerty said in a statement.

Next U.S. census is in 2030

The census changes are not final, but any change the administration implements would be difficult to undo before the 2030 census.

The administration in its proposal states that "the Census Bureau is considering how best to distinguish between foreign citizens in the United States who are counted for apportionment" and suggests it would use administrative records to check the legal status of those counted. The proposal also says that the Census Bureau could add an immigration status question to the census' short-form questionnaire.

The first, Anand said, would likely have the effect of suppressing response rates and contribute to an inaccurate count. The second would likely lead to errors and the wrongful discounting of people in the country with legal status.

A New York Times analysis of the proposal found that it would result in lost House seats in several states, including places that generally favor Republicans. Florida, Rhode Island and Texas would all stand to lose a seat, according to the Times, while Minnesota, Ohio and Oregon could each add a representative to their congressional delegations.

But beyond apportioning congressional seats, the rule could reduce funding for federal programs aimed at low-income populations, such as Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Head Start, said Julie Morita, president and CEO of the Joyce Foundation, a nonpartisan philanthropy that supports racial equity and economic mobility in the Great Lakes region. She noted these programs amount to "trillions of dollars."

"An inaccurate count risks a decade of consequences," Rep. Grace Meng, D-N.Y., said in a statement in September. "Census data help determine representation in Congress, electoral districts, and the allocation of federal resources for health care, education, infrastructure, and other essential services." 

Trump has tried to exclude noncitizens before

In the waning days of his first term, Trump attempted to exclude undocumented immigrants from congressional apportionment, though the change wasn't implemented. In August 2025, Trump announced in a TruthSocial post that he'd instructed the Department of Commerce to "begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS."

"People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS," Trump posted.

The Commerce Department has authority over the count, but must present to Congress any changes in subjects and the types of information to be compiled at least three years before the next Census Day, which would set an April 1, 2027, deadline. The department is also required to report to Congress the questions that will be included in the census at least two years before Census Day.

Congress does have the authority to overrule proposed changes with legislation. But unless Democrats win a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, overruling the Trump administration is unlikely.

A Democratic president who wins election in 2028 could also introduce a new rule to cancel out Trump's exclusion of certain immigrants, but the rule-making process is time-consuming and cumbersome, and there would be little time.

"Planning for the census takes lots of time, effort, research, operational changes, programming of computers, developing code," Anand said.