UK shoppers seek deals as grocery price inflation rises again

Grocery price inflation in the UK has picked up further, prompting shoppers to turn to special offers to keep their bills down – while the price of chocolates has fallen in the run-up to Halloween.

Supermarket prices were 2.5% higher than last year in the four weeks to 4 October, up from 2.3% last month, according to data from the retail analysts Worldpanel by Numerator.

Spending on promotions over the last month was more than £250m higher than a year ago, with many shoppers using special offers to keep their grocery bills in check or to make pricier items and larger packs more affordable, Worldpanel said.

Fraser McKevitt, the head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said: “With the autumn budget fast approaching [on 28 October], the cost of living continues to weigh heavily on the minds of shoppers. And the cost of filling up a car is only adding to the pressure on household budgets.

“More than half tell us they’re very or extremely worried about petrol prices, and almost one in three say it’s already taking a real toll on their finances. Until the chancellor sets out his plans, we expect that caution to carry on showing up at the till, with shoppers leaning more heavily on promotions to keep their grocery spend under control.”

However, in some good news for households stocking up on trick or treat supplies for Halloween, chocolate confectionery prices are 3% lower than a year ago.

About 1.2 million households bought a pumpkin over the latest four weeks, up 10% year on year, while more than 250,000 households treated themselves to a pumpkin spice coffee.

McKevitt added: “Halloween and Christmas are two of the most important moments of the year for chocolate confectionery, so falling prices will be welcome news for shoppers and retailers alike.

“After the double-digit increases of 2025, a 3% drop won’t fully reverse what consumers have paid in recent months, but it should help ease some of the pressure on household budgets as the festive season approaches.”

While sales of hot chocolate and soup surged in September compared with August, by 41% and 35% respectively, they fell sharply when compared with last year, by 20% and 4% respectively.

A separate report from NielsenIQ showed total till sales at major UK supermarkets grew 1.4% in the four weeks to 3 October, down from 1.8% growth in the previous month, as shoppers remain cautious about spending.

Summer favourites remained popular as September was unusually warm this year, with strong sales of mineral water (+17.4%) and ice-cream (+11.7%), while sales of hot chocolate (-11%) and ready-to-eat soup (-5.4%) declined year on year.

skip past newsletter promotion

after newsletter promotion

Asda was the only big grocer to report a drop in sales, of 0.5%, in the 12 weeks to 4 October, Worldpanel said.

The German discounter Lidl led in market share gains and now controls 8.6%, on the back of a 7.1% increase in sales driven by fruit, vegetables and wine.

Sales at the online grocer Ocado increased by 12.4%, outpacing online sales across the sector at 5.5%.

Spending through the tills was 1% higher at Tesco and 1.3% higher at Sainsbury’s, with the two retailers holding 27.8% and 15.2% of the market respectively.

Asda’s share now stands at 11.5%, while Aldi holds 10.5% of the market, with sales at the discounter up 0.4% year on year.

Beyond the supermarkets, grocery sales at Marks & Spencer rose by 14.9%.